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The Black Swan Theory

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The Black Swan term is based on an ancient saying that presumed Black Swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after Black Swans were discovered in the wild.


The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain that a Black Swan event is:


1. A Surprise

2. has a major effect

3. is rationalized after the fact


This is the basis of Black Swan Textiles...a digital apparel industry that enables a local-for-local business model which we have phrased MetaVertical

Yesterday

In the late 1980’s, many apparel brands shed their backwards integration to exploit the low cost labor markets emerging in developing nations. They shuttered their own factories and worked through agents and contract manufacturers with little or no visibility into the tiers of the supply chain. 

Today

Today, most apparel designers know little about manufacturing and most manufacturers don’t understand what drives product design. Labor costs, turnover and unrest are on the rise. Environmental compliance has become costlier to monitor. All of this has eroded the value of the futures model. Apparel brand leaders are actively seeking change, but “what’s next” is unclear.

Tomorrow

 The goal of the Digital Twin is to digitally connect a fragmented supply chain and return the feedback loop through the Digital Thread. To model the advantages of the old vertical models into a digital enterprise, two Digital Twin models are required — Product and Production.  

Collaborations

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The Digital Thread

Product

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Production

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Performance

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Industry 4.0

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We are in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0), which is built on past utilities and technology. Industry 4.0 is data. it is the creation of data to solve complex problems and improve business functions.


The factory of the future in apparel is one where efficiency, quality and planning are predictable, repeatable and built for a demanding consumer by leveraging enormous amounts of data. Predictable, not only for the factory, but also its supply chain and retailers. Eliminate sampling. Meet the expectations of the consumer in weeks, not months.

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